Last week was a grind. Every team played Tuesday, and almost every pickup sat on the nights that mattered. This week is friendlier. Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday are all quiet, and on each of them at least nine rosters in ten have room for another forward.
The best part: one team plays three of those four nights. If you only make one move this week, it's an Avalanche player.
Quick hits
- This week: Colorado (4 games, 3 on quiet nights), then Philadelphia, Florida and Montreal (3 games, 2 quiet each)
- Next 2 weeks: Colorado, Philadelphia, Edmonton
- Next 30 days: Calgary, San Jose, Philadelphia
Every team, every night this week: see the full Week 4 grid.
Four quiet nights
| Night | NHL games | Rosters with an open forward spot | With an open D spot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 19 | 4 | 90% | 97% |
| Tue Oct 20 | 11 | 32% | 43% |
| Wed Oct 21 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Thu Oct 22 | 12 | 29% | 49% |
| Fri Oct 23 | 2 | 98% | 100% |
| Sat Oct 24 | 12 | 25% | 42% |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 91% | 96% |
| Mon Oct 26 (Week 5) | 3 | 97% | 99% |
Same shape as the last two weeks: the busy nights are Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. The difference is that none of them is completely full, and the quiet nights are spread out so a pickup can actually string a few together.
How the teams split:
- Three off-nights: Colorado (Mon, Tue, Fri, Sun). Only one team.
- Two off-nights: Philadelphia (Mon, Wed, Sat), Florida (Wed, Thu, Sun), Montreal (Tue, Fri, Sun) and Chicago (Fri, Sun, and that's their whole week).
- One off-night: Anaheim, Minnesota, San Jose, Toronto, Dallas, the Islanders, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Nashville, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, Utah and Buffalo.
- No off-nights: Boston, Carolina, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Seattle, St. Louis and Vegas play Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Calgary, Columbus and Washington play only twice, both on busy nights.
The strategies
One add: grab an Avalanche player
Colorado plays Monday, Tuesday, Friday and Sunday. Three of those are quiet nights, so a Colorado forward gets you about 3.1 usable games, and a Colorado D about 3.4. Nobody else is close; the next best single add is 2.2. And they stay on top over two weeks too (6 games, 4.6 usable).
- COL: Kadri (66%, 4.0 power-play minutes a game), Landeskog (34%, 5 points in 8), Malinski (20%, D), Schwartz (14%)
Kadri is the one to grab if he's there. He's playing 20 minutes a night, up a minute from last season, with four minutes on the power play and three shots a game. In a lot of leagues he won't be, so Landeskog is the realistic forward.
Two cautions. Schwartz has 6 points in 8 games, but he's playing 13.2 minutes a night, down almost three minutes from his Seattle days. That's fourth-line ice time scoring like a second liner, and it rarely lasts. Malinski is a useful body for the D spot (Colorado's D get the most usable games of anyone this week), but he has one point in seven games and his ice time is down a bit. Take him for the games, not the upside.
Two adds: Philadelphia Mon/Wed, then Montreal Fri/Sun
This one covers all four quiet nights. A Flyer gets you Monday and Wednesday, then you swap to a Canadien for Friday and Sunday. That's about 3.8 usable games for one forward spot, against 3.1 for the single Colorado add.
- PHI: Zegras (60%), Michkov (27%), Sanheim (33%, D, 25 minutes a night), Drysdale (5%, D, 2.7 power-play minutes a game)
- MTL: Kreider (23%), Newhook (2%), Texier (0%)
Philadelphia's forward group is thin right now. Travis Konecny is on IR and Owen Tippett is out, so Michkov's role should grow. He's at 3.0 power-play minutes a game already, up 0.8. Zegras is the better player but has 4 points in 10 games, and his ownership has dropped 12 points this week. That might be your window.
Montreal's options are thinner. Kreider is on the power play (3.0 minutes a game) but his ice time is down two minutes from last season in Anaheim. Ivan Demidov is on IR and Mike Matheson has been day-to-day with a lower-body injury, so this is a schedule play more than a talent play. If you'd rather have a stronger name for Friday and Sunday, a Colorado player plays those same two nights. You'd give up nothing in usable games.
Three adds: Toronto, Ottawa, then Montreal
If you've got three moves, the best path is a Leaf for Monday and Tuesday, a Senator for Wednesday and Thursday, then a Canadien for Friday and Sunday. About 4.4 usable games.
- TOR (Mon/Tue): Roslovic (24%, 6 points in 9, 3.3 shots a game), Rielly (36%, D)
- OTT (Wed/Thu): Giroux (21%, 3.5 power-play minutes a game, up 1.3), Pinto (21%), Spence (2%, D, 22.4 minutes a night, up 3.7)
John Tavares is on IR as of Saturday, which should mean more minutes for Roslovic. In Ottawa, check the news before you commit: captain Thomas Chabot left Saturday's game against the Flyers with an upper-body injury, and Jake Sanderson has been out since opening night (he may be back Wednesday). If both are out, Spence's 22 minutes go up again.
Honestly, the third add only buys you about 0.6 more usable games over the two-add stream. If you're low on moves, it's the one to skip.
Spare bench spot: a Senator and an Av
Carry one of each and start whoever plays. Colorado goes Monday, Tuesday, Friday and Sunday; Ottawa goes Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. That's a game every night of the week, seven in all, and about 4.6 that fit a lineup.
Who's getting more opportunity
Ice time and power-play time move before the points do. These are players most leagues can still get, with this season's minutes a game and the change from last season. Samples are now six to nine games.
| Player | Team | Owned | Ice time | Power play | So far | This week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (D) | BUF | 53% | 26.7 (+5.1) | 2.9 (+2.0) | 8 pts in 9 | 2 games |
| Jack Quinn | BUF | 27% | 19.6 (+3.9) | 3.8 (+1.6) | 9 pts in 9 | 2 games |
| Zach Benson | BUF | 37% | 19.9 (+4.0) | 3.7 (+2.0) | 6 pts in 9 | 2 games |
| Noah Ostlund | BUF | 3% | 18.9 (+4.9) | 3.4 (+2.0) | 6 pts in 9 | 2 games |
| Viktor Arvidsson | DET | 18% | 19.1 (+4.5) | 4.0 (+2.0) | 5 pts in 8 | 3 games, no off-nights |
| Kent Johnson | CBJ | 9% | 17.2 (+4.0) | 3.0 (+1.3) | 5 pts in 6 | 2 games, no off-nights |
| Kasperi Kapanen | EDM | 3% | 17.5 (+3.0) | 2.6 (+2.3) | 4 pts in 8 | 3 games, no off-nights |
| Ryan Shea (D) | EDM | 3% | 22.7 (+3.8) | 1.4 (+1.3) | 3 pts in 8 | 3 games, no off-nights |
| Denton Mateychuk (D) | CBJ | 7% | 24.1 (+4.9) | 1.3 (+0.7) | 2 pts in 6 | 2 games, no off-nights |
| Michael Kesselring (D) | SJS | 1% | 19.6 (+6.2) | 0.0 | 2 pts in 8 | 4 games |
| Alexander Kerfoot | NSH | 0% | 16.6 (+3.9) | 1.5 (+1.1) | 4 pts in 8 | 3 games |
A few I'd look at first:
- Buffalo is still the story. Four Sabres are on this list for the second week running, and now Rasmus Dahlin is out with an upper-body injury, so Owen Power is playing almost 27 minutes a night. Jack Quinn has gone from 2 points in 5 games last week to 9 in 9. The catch: Buffalo plays only twice this week. These are holds, not streams.
- Arvidsson, Kapanen and Shea keep showing up. Same problem as last week: their teams have no quiet nights. Edmonton has 7 games over the next two weeks, though, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just went on IR, so Kapanen's minutes look safe for now.
- Kent Johnson has 5 points in 6 games on three shots a night. Columbus plays only twice this week, so he's one to stash, not start.
Teams to trim this week
If you need a roster spot, start here.
- Calgary plays twice, Thursday and Saturday. A Flame gets you about 0.5 usable games, the fewest of any team. If you're carrying one, he's this week's easiest drop.
- Columbus and Washington play twice too, both on Tuesday and Saturday. About 0.6 usable games each.
- No quiet nights: Boston, Carolina, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Seattle, St. Louis and Vegas all play Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Their stars still start. Their depth players mostly sit.
Buffalo and Chicago only play twice as well, but they're different. Chicago's two games are both on quiet nights (Friday and Sunday), so a Blackhawk still gets you nearly two usable games. And the Sabres' depth guys are the ones getting more ice time. Keep them.
Teams to target this week
Ranked by usable games for a forward.
| Team | Games | Usable (F) | Usable (D) | Options |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | Kadri 66%, Landeskog 34%, Malinski 20% (D), Schwartz 14% |
| FLA | 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | Jones 83% (D), Verhaeghe 38%, Ekblad 13% (D), Lundell 10% |
| MTL | 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | Kreider 23%, Newhook 2%, Texier 0% |
| PHI | 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | Zegras 60%, Sanheim 33% (D), Michkov 27%, Drysdale 5% (D), Dvorak 2% |
| CHI | 2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | Kane 36%, Bertuzzi 18%, Nazar 12%, Levshunov 10% (D) |
Notes on those names:
- Florida's power play keeps feeding Seth Jones: 5.4 minutes a game, up 1.8, and 10 points in 9 games. His ownership jumped 10 points this week, so he's probably gone. Verhaeghe (38%, 8 points in 9, 3.9 power-play minutes a game) is the realistic Panther, and he's also a hold for the month.
- Chicago's Bowen Byram is out, which should open minutes for Levshunov. But his power-play time is down to 0.2 minutes a game from 2.7 last season, so he's not getting that role yet. Kane (new from Detroit, 3.2 power-play minutes a game) is the better Blackhawk. Nazar's power-play time is down to 1.5 minutes from 3.2.
The next two weeks
If you'd rather add once and hold through Nov 1:
| Team | Games | Usable (F) | Options |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 6 | 4.6 | Kadri 66%, Landeskog 34%, Malinski 20% (D), Schwartz 14% |
| PHI | 6 | 4.4 | Zegras 60%, Sanheim 33% (D), Michkov 27%, Drysdale 5% (D) |
| EDM | 7 | 4.2 | Hyman 83%, Shea 3% (D), Kapanen 3% |
| TOR | 7 | 4.2 | Rielly 36% (D), Roslovic 24%, Ekman-Larsson 7% (D) |
| WPG | 7 | 4.1 | Perfetti 66%, Pionk 35% (D), Ferraro 2% (D), Björck 2% (flyer) |
Winnipeg is new here. Cole Perfetti is playing 18.4 minutes a night (up 2.8) with 8 points in 8, and Neal Pionk (6 points in 8, 3.6 hits and blocks a game) jumped 16 points in ownership this week. Josh Morrissey is out, which helps explain Pionk's role. Viggo Björck, the 8th overall pick in June, has played all 8 games at 14.7 minutes a night but is still looking for his first point.
On Toronto, Ekman-Larsson is in the table because of last season's numbers, but his ice time is down 3.5 minutes and his power-play time is basically gone (0.1 minutes a game, from 1.9). I wouldn't.
The next 30 days
For a roster spot you want to set and forget through Nov 17:
| Team | Games | Usable (F) | Options |
|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 14 | 9.8 | Parekh 22% (D), Nemec 19% (D), Gridin 3%, Kuznetsov 0% (D) |
| SJS | 16 | 9.2 | Trouba 60% (D), Nurse 36% (D), Marchment 20%, Orlov 11% (D), Wennberg 3% |
| PHI | 14 | 9.0 | Zegras 60%, Sanheim 33% (D), Michkov 27%, Drysdale 5% (D), Dvorak 2% |
| FLA | 14 | 8.8 | Jones 83% (D), Verhaeghe 38%, Ekblad 13% (D), Lundell 10% |
| EDM | 15 | 8.2 | Hyman 83%, Shea 3% (D), Kapanen 3% |
Yes, Calgary is both the worst team this week and the best schedule over the month. The schedule is great. The roster isn't: the cheap Flames are two young D and Gridin, and they have 6 points between them in 7 games each. This is a schedule bet, not a talent one, and I'd only make it in a deep league. San Jose and Philadelphia give you nearly as many usable games with better players.
San Jose plays 16 times in 30 days, the most of anyone. Wennberg (3%) is getting 4.1 power-play minutes a game and is the cheapest way in. Nemec (new from New Jersey) is playing 21 minutes a night in Calgary, up 1.3.
Holds for the next month
Players worth keeping rather than streaming, at every ownership level:
- Forwards: Zegras (60%), Granlund (42%), Verhaeghe (38%), Michkov (27%), Toffoli (14%), Wennberg (3%)
- D: Trouba (60%), Sanheim (33%), Orlov (11%)
Two notes. Granlund has 8 points in 6 games and 4.2 power-play minutes a game, but Yahoo has him day-to-day with an upper-body injury, so check before you add. Toffoli is on the list for San Jose's schedule and last season's scoring, but he's playing 12.9 minutes a night this year, down two. I'd take Wennberg first.
Following up on last week
- Minnesota was last week's single add. Jared Spurgeon and Olli Määttä, both on that list, are now out with upper-body injuries. If you grabbed either, check their status before Tuesday.
- Dylan Garand is still the Rangers' goalie with Shesterkin out for the season. The Rangers play Monday, Thursday and Saturday.
- Connor Hellebuyck's team suspension is reported to end Friday, but reports also say the Jets may keep him away from the team while his trade request plays out. Don't add him expecting starts this week.
How this works
- I drafted 1,800 fantasy rosters (150 simulated 12-team, 16-round Yahoo drafts) off ADP, with some noise and a few deep picks.
- Yahoo standard skater slots: 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D. Each night, a roster's playing skaters fill what they can, and a pickup's game counts only if he fills one more slot. That's a usable game.
- Everything is in games, not points, because every league scores differently.
- Ownership is Yahoo's percent owned this week. That's an average across leagues, not your league, which is why every team gets options at several levels.
- Ice time and power-play time are this season's, compared with last season's, once a player has three games. Stats are through Saturday, Oct 17.
None of this knows who's free in your league or what your scoring rewards. It just tells you where the games that count are.
Do it for your own roster
The averages above are for a typical roster. Yours isn't typical. My Team shows your open lineup spots night by night, every available player who'd fill them, and how many of your weekly adds are worth using now against saving for later. The schedule page shows every team's games and off-nights for any date range.
Check your wire, and good luck this week.